ABL 2022-23 Semi-Finals Preview

*Check out my Stats Glossary page for any explanation on the stats that I use.

*Check out this page to view the league averages, to understand the context of the stats that I will be using.

Hello readers. I am back. I mean, I never really left but I just kinda got lazy and got caught up in other things, so I kinda neglected this blog a bit. But with the ABL semi-finals starting tomorrow, I thought I needed to write about it. Let's get to it!

Just as a side-note, I want to mention that all four teams in the semis have won 5 out of their last 8 games. So no team is entering the semis in hotter form than any other, though the Giants did sweep their final regular season series.

Auckland Tuatara (.500) vs Adelaide Giants (.625) Team Comparisons

The Tuataras will head into the semi-final against the Southwest Division champions, the Giants, as underdogs.

Tuatara's Offense vs Giants' Pitching

Tuatara's Offense			Giant's Pitching
Stat		Rank	Stat		Rank
GPA	0.254	4th	DICE	3.80	2nd
OBP	0.343	3rd	oOBP	0.329	5th
ISO	0.144	5th	HR%	2.2%	1st
K%	18.1%	1st	K%	23.5%	2nd
BB%	10.5%	2nd	BB%	10.5%	6th

Tuatara's offensive unit has been excellent this season at hitting for contact but they'll be going up against a pitching staff that has also been great at striking batters out, so be sure to follow that storyline. The Giants have also been great at suppressing home-runs, which does not bode well for the Tuataras who ranked 5th in ISO. The Giants have not been great at limiting the free-pass though, which is another area that the Tuatara's excelled in and a potential weak point that they can target.

Giants' Offense vs Tuatara's Pitching

Giants' Offense			Tuatara's Pitching
Stat		Rank	Stat		Rank
GPA	0.269	2nd	DICE	4.38	6th
OBP	0.347	2nd	oOBP	0.328	4th
ISO	0.179	2nd	HR%	2.9%	5th
K%	21.8%	4th	K%	21.2%	5th
BB%	9.1%	5th	BB%	10.8%	7th

The Giants' boast one of the best offensive line-ups in the league this season. They rely on making the balls they hit in play count, and they do just that with their .179 ISO & .320 BABIP. On paper, it looks as though Tuatara's pitching is outmatched against the Giants' offense.

Potential Starting Pitchers (Taken from the ABL article)

Game 1

Dylan Unsworth (ADE) vs Toru Murata (AUCK)

I'm tempted to give the Tuatara the advantage here since Murata has pitched more than Unsworth this season, but there's no denying that Unsworth has pitched very well in the 4 games that he's pitched.

Game 2

Jordan Fowler (ADE) vs Wei-Chun Weng (AUCK)

Advantage here goes to the Giants as Fowler sports a 2.53 DICE as opposed to Weng's 4.46. Another worry for Auckland is Weng's pitch-to-contact tendencies may not bode well against a Giants' line-up that crushes the ball when they put the ball in play.

Game 3 (If Necessary)

Jack O'Loughlin (ADE) vs Chien Yu (AUCK)

Yu has pitched better than his 5.34 ERA suggests, given his 3.66 DICE & his ability to limit free-passes. 

But I'm giving the advantage here to the Giants given O'Loughlin's oOBP of .308 & a K% of 28.6%. He has surrendered home-runs at a very high rate though (4.4%) so we will see if the Tuatara's can take advantage of that.

My Prediction - 2-1 series win for ... the Giants.

Perth Heat (.575) vs Brisbane Bandits (.750) Team Comparisons

The Heat head East to face the all-conquering Bandits.

Heat's Offense vs Bandit's Pitching

Heat's Offense			Bandit's Pitching
Stat		Rank	Stat		Rank
GPA	0.275	1st	DICE	3.37	1st
OBP	0.352	1st	oOBP	0.286	1st
ISO	0.193	1st	HR%	2.7%	T-3rd
K%	19.3%	2nd	K%	26.3%	1st
BB%	9.7%	3rd	BB%	7.5%	1st

This match-up makes for a mouth-watering encounter - the best offensive unit up against the best pitching staff in the league. They say "pitching wins championships" but in a short 3-game series, anything can happen.

Bandit's Offense vs Heat's Pitching

Bandit's Offense			Heat's Pitching
Stat		Rank	Stat		Rank
GPA	0.265	3rd	DICE	4.15	4th
OBP	0.347	3rd	oOBP	0.324	3rd
ISO	0.177	3rd	HR%	3.1%	6th
K%	21.4%	3rd	K%	21.4%	4th
BB%	11.1%	1st	BB%	8.6%	3rd

The Bandit's offense ranks slightly better than the Heat's pitching, but it must be noted that the Bandits are now without Tyler Tolbert, who was such a catalyst for Brisbane at the top of the line-up so the other players are going to have to step up to fill the void that he's left.

Potential Starting Pitchers (Taken from the ABL article)

Game 1

Max Lazar (BRI) vs Gunnar Kines (PER)

Two of the very best starting pitchers in the league in the same game - what could be better? They have no clear weakness apart from maybe that Lazar doesn't quite pitch as deep into games as Kines. I'm gonna have to (reluctantly) give the Heat the advantage here because of their league-leading offense backing Gunnar Kines up.

Game 2

Tim Atherton (BRI) vs Brock Gilliam (PER)

Another game between two very evenly-matched pitchers. I'm giving the Bandits the advantage here because of Atherton's oOBP of .281 compared to Gilliam's .317. But if the Heat can take advantage of Atherton's tendency to give up home-runs, they can get away with a win here.

Game 3 (If Neccesary)

Cam Wagoner (BRI) vs Warwick Saupold (PER)

If there's a game 3, I'm giving the advantage to the Bandits as Saupold has not been able to sustain the success he was having as a pitch-to-contact pitcher earlier in the season. He has allowed an oOBP of .332 and a lot of the runners he's letting on-base are scoring, as we see from his LOB% of 56.8%. He has also allowed home-runs at a rate that's a tick above-average (3.2%). 

Cam Wagoner, on the other hand, has an oOBP of .292 and a BABIP of .228. With a league-average strike-out rate of 22.1%, he's relying on the batter to put the ball in play & it's working out for him.

My Prediction - 2-1 series win for ... the Bandits.

We shall see how correct (or wrong) I am with my predictions over the weekend. Play Ball!