ABL 2022-23 Semi-Finals Preview

*Check out my Stats Glossary page for any explanation on the stats that I use.

*Check out this page to view the league averages, to understand the context of the stats that I will be using.

Hello readers. I am back. I mean, I never really left but I just kinda got lazy and got caught up in other things, so I kinda neglected this blog a bit. But with the ABL semi-finals starting tomorrow, I thought I needed to write about it. Let's get to it!

Just as a side-note, I want to mention that all four teams in the semis have won 5 out of their last 8 games. So no team is entering the semis in hotter form than any other, though the Giants did sweep their final regular season series.

Auckland Tuatara (.500) vs Adelaide Giants (.625) Team Comparisons

The Tuataras will head into the semi-final against the Southwest Division champions, the Giants, as underdogs.

Tuatara's Offense vs Giants' Pitching

Tuatara's Offense			Giant's Pitching
Stat		Rank	Stat		Rank
GPA	0.254	4th	DICE	3.80	2nd
OBP	0.343	3rd	oOBP	0.329	5th
ISO	0.144	5th	HR%	2.2%	1st
K%	18.1%	1st	K%	23.5%	2nd
BB%	10.5%	2nd	BB%	10.5%	6th

Tuatara's offensive unit has been excellent this season at hitting for contact but they'll be going up against a pitching staff that has also been great at striking batters out, so be sure to follow that storyline. The Giants have also been great at suppressing home-runs, which does not bode well for the Tuataras who ranked 5th in ISO. The Giants have not been great at limiting the free-pass though, which is another area that the Tuatara's excelled in and a potential weak point that they can target.

Giants' Offense vs Tuatara's Pitching

Giants' Offense			Tuatara's Pitching
Stat		Rank	Stat		Rank
GPA	0.269	2nd	DICE	4.38	6th
OBP	0.347	2nd	oOBP	0.328	4th
ISO	0.179	2nd	HR%	2.9%	5th
K%	21.8%	4th	K%	21.2%	5th
BB%	9.1%	5th	BB%	10.8%	7th

The Giants' boast one of the best offensive line-ups in the league this season. They rely on making the balls they hit in play count, and they do just that with their .179 ISO & .320 BABIP. On paper, it looks as though Tuatara's pitching is outmatched against the Giants' offense.

Potential Starting Pitchers (Taken from the ABL article)

Game 1

Dylan Unsworth (ADE) vs Toru Murata (AUCK)

I'm tempted to give the Tuatara the advantage here since Murata has pitched more than Unsworth this season, but there's no denying that Unsworth has pitched very well in the 4 games that he's pitched.

Game 2

Jordan Fowler (ADE) vs Wei-Chun Weng (AUCK)

Advantage here goes to the Giants as Fowler sports a 2.53 DICE as opposed to Weng's 4.46. Another worry for Auckland is Weng's pitch-to-contact tendencies may not bode well against a Giants' line-up that crushes the ball when they put the ball in play.

Game 3 (If Necessary)

Jack O'Loughlin (ADE) vs Chien Yu (AUCK)

Yu has pitched better than his 5.34 ERA suggests, given his 3.66 DICE & his ability to limit free-passes. 

But I'm giving the advantage here to the Giants given O'Loughlin's oOBP of .308 & a K% of 28.6%. He has surrendered home-runs at a very high rate though (4.4%) so we will see if the Tuatara's can take advantage of that.

My Prediction - 2-1 series win for ... the Giants.

Perth Heat (.575) vs Brisbane Bandits (.750) Team Comparisons

The Heat head East to face the all-conquering Bandits.

Heat's Offense vs Bandit's Pitching

Heat's Offense			Bandit's Pitching
Stat		Rank	Stat		Rank
GPA	0.275	1st	DICE	3.37	1st
OBP	0.352	1st	oOBP	0.286	1st
ISO	0.193	1st	HR%	2.7%	T-3rd
K%	19.3%	2nd	K%	26.3%	1st
BB%	9.7%	3rd	BB%	7.5%	1st

This match-up makes for a mouth-watering encounter - the best offensive unit up against the best pitching staff in the league. They say "pitching wins championships" but in a short 3-game series, anything can happen.

Bandit's Offense vs Heat's Pitching

Bandit's Offense			Heat's Pitching
Stat		Rank	Stat		Rank
GPA	0.265	3rd	DICE	4.15	4th
OBP	0.347	3rd	oOBP	0.324	3rd
ISO	0.177	3rd	HR%	3.1%	6th
K%	21.4%	3rd	K%	21.4%	4th
BB%	11.1%	1st	BB%	8.6%	3rd

The Bandit's offense ranks slightly better than the Heat's pitching, but it must be noted that the Bandits are now without Tyler Tolbert, who was such a catalyst for Brisbane at the top of the line-up so the other players are going to have to step up to fill the void that he's left.

Potential Starting Pitchers (Taken from the ABL article)

Game 1

Max Lazar (BRI) vs Gunnar Kines (PER)

Two of the very best starting pitchers in the league in the same game - what could be better? They have no clear weakness apart from maybe that Lazar doesn't quite pitch as deep into games as Kines. I'm gonna have to (reluctantly) give the Heat the advantage here because of their league-leading offense backing Gunnar Kines up.

Game 2

Tim Atherton (BRI) vs Brock Gilliam (PER)

Another game between two very evenly-matched pitchers. I'm giving the Bandits the advantage here because of Atherton's oOBP of .281 compared to Gilliam's .317. But if the Heat can take advantage of Atherton's tendency to give up home-runs, they can get away with a win here.

Game 3 (If Neccesary)

Cam Wagoner (BRI) vs Warwick Saupold (PER)

If there's a game 3, I'm giving the advantage to the Bandits as Saupold has not been able to sustain the success he was having as a pitch-to-contact pitcher earlier in the season. He has allowed an oOBP of .332 and a lot of the runners he's letting on-base are scoring, as we see from his LOB% of 56.8%. He has also allowed home-runs at a rate that's a tick above-average (3.2%). 

Cam Wagoner, on the other hand, has an oOBP of .292 and a BABIP of .228. With a league-average strike-out rate of 22.1%, he's relying on the batter to put the ball in play & it's working out for him.

My Prediction - 2-1 series win for ... the Bandits.

We shall see how correct (or wrong) I am with my predictions over the weekend. Play Ball!

Major Leaguers in ABL 2022-23 (So Far)

In the 2022-23 edition of the ABL, there are 10 players (so far) who have appeared at the Major League level. Let's take a look at how they are currently performing in the ABL.

*Check out my Stats Glossary page for any explanation on the stats that I use.

*Check out this page to view the league averages, to understand the context of the stats that I will be using.

The Players (in order of Major League [ML] games played)

Batters

• Josh Reddick (Perth Heat) - 1305 ML Games

• Pete Kozma (Perth Heat) - 344 ML Games

• Tzu-Wei Lin (Auckland Tuatara) - 102 ML Games

• Donald Lutz (Brisbane Bandits) - 62 ML Games

• Aaron Whitefield (Melbourne Aces) - 8 ML Games

• Jacob Robson (Melbourne Aces) - 4 ML Games

Pitchers

• Brian Flynn (Melbourne Aces) - 102 ML Games

• Warwick Saupold (Perth Heat) - 82 ML Games

• Chris Oxspring (Sydney Blue Sox) - 5 ML Games

• Toru Murata (Auckland Tuatara) - 1 ML Game

How Are They Going?

Tzu-Wei Lin

With a GPA of .361, Tzu-Wei Lin is the best of his cohort this season, so far. The only knock on him is that this level of performance *maybe* unsustainable if the season was longer than the scheduled 40 games (.375 BABIP). But that concern is tempered by the fact that he is doing everything else well - he's hitting for average (.381), he's getting on-base (.467), he's hitting for contact (6.6 K%), he's hitting for power (.222 ISO, 3.9% HR%) and he's got great discipline (13.2 BB%). On top of all that he's also been a plus as a base-stealer, taking off for a steal 29% of the time with a 100% success rate (129.0 BS Index). He is easily the best batter in Auckland's line-up and they will need him to continue producing if they hope to compete for a spot in the play-offs.

Jacob Robson

There's a steep drop in GPA from best to second-best (- .071), but Jacob Robson is still comfortably above-average with a .290 GPA. There are holes in his swing as demonstrated by his 25.3% strike-out rate. But when he gets the bat on the ball, he makes it count (.231 ISO, 5.1% HR%).

Pete Kozma

The second-most experienced ML player on this list, Pete Kozma is currently the owner of a .283 GPA. That performance is fuelled by his ability to hit doubles (5.8% 2B%) & just his general knack for hitting for contact, as he refuses to strike-out or even walk (10.7% & 5.8% respectively). His contact-oriented style has led to a .319 batting average & .341 BABIP, which may indicate unsustainable production but in a 40-game season, that won't matter much. 

Donald Lutz

We now move on to the three batters who are having disappointing seasons. First up is Donald Lutz, owner of a .239 GPA. He's shown that he is among the best at hitting home-runs (5.3% HR%) but not much else apart from that. His plate-discipline is fine (9.2% BB%) and he's making contact (17.1% K%), which just leaves us to consider the quality of his contact. His BABIP of .216 suggests two things: he's getting unlucky AND/OR his quality of contact is not great. His high rate of home-runs suggests he is a fly-ball heavy hitter, as does his lack of doubles (1.3% 2B%) and fly-balls are BABIP killers. It should be noted that his production has nose-dived since the 2018-19 season so perhaps this is the baseline that we should be expecting from Lutz (as much as it pains me to say, as a Bandits fan).

Josh Reddick

Josh Reddick is the man that inspired me to write this. I initially wanted to explore the potential reasons for his struggles in the ABL this season but then decided to write about all the players with big league experience. 

Not much has gone right for the man with the most big league experience this season, as he sports a .203 GPA from 105 PA. He is putting the ball in play quite a bit (10.5% K%) but he is not doing much damage in doing so (.185 BABIP). His doubles & home-run rate are right on average (3.8% & 2.9% respectively) which means he could be having an atrocious run of bad luck as his would-be singles are gobbled up by opposing defenders. He's also walking at a below-average rate (5.7%) which does not help his production, but it shouldn't be the biggest reason for his struggles.

It is a shame to see him not do too well because I'm an A's fan & Reddick was the player I was most looking forward to seeing in action this season. I will still keenly follow his season & hope for a turn around in the second half of the season.

Aaron Whitefield

Owner of a .187 GPA, Aaron Whitefield has been the most disappointing batter of this group thus far. He strikes-out quite a bit (27.5%) & when he does put the ball in play, he is not doing much with it. His doubles & home-run rate are below average (2.5% & 1.3%), which has led to an ISO of .075 (yikes). One source of bright spot for Whitefield though, is that he remains an effective base-stealer. His take-off rate of 42.9% with a success rate of 100% leads to an impressive 142.9 BS Index. But his legs are moot if he can't find a way to get on base (.275 OBP).

It is now time to get onto the pitchers (in order of success again, this time as judged by ERA).

Toru Murata

With an ERA of 0.76, Toru Murata comfortably beats the other 3 pitchers on the list. That is backed up by a .266 oOBP. He has done this despite having an average strike-out rate (20.2%) but he has done well to limit the walks (5.3%) & he hasn't surrendered a single home-run all season (yet)! The caveat to all this is Murata does have the 2nd largest difference in ERA-DICE (his ERA is lower than his DICE by -1.39) & to go along with a BABIP of .275, it may indicate unsustainable performance but I doubt he and the fans in Auckland care about these numbers :) Just don't @ me, please. He's having a killer season and let's leave it at that.

Chris Oxspring

Chris Oxspring is the only reliever on this list and he's been having a pretty good season himself. He has a 2.70 ERA (3.30 DICE) and that is despite the fact that his BABIP is at .327, to go along with an oOBP of .317, which is right on league average. What has led to that low ERA, I hear you ask? I don't think it's his strike-out rate of 23.2%, which while that is above-average, it isn't meaningfully so. His walk rate of 7.3% also does not indicate him being an absurd control pitcher. 

A stat one looks at to see where Oxspring's season has gone right is his LOB%, which sits at 86.2%, comfortably above-average. It seems he's had a lot of luck - although he's allowing batters to get on-base at an average clip, he somehow manages to strand a ridiculous number of those runners. Cue the usual comment on unsustainable performance, small sample, short season etc etc.

Warwick Saupold

Warwick Saupold owns a 3.30 ERA while being one of the more (if not the most) extreme pitch-to-contact pitcher in the league, with strike-out & walk rates of 11% & 0.8% respectively. Whatever he's doing is working because he's not allowing many batters to get on base (.299 oOBP) and he's only allowing a BABIP of .306, right around league average.

Brian Flynn

We've come to the last player on our list in Brian Flynn, who also happens to be the pitcher with the most big league experience in the ABL this season. He has an ERA of 4.38 on the season thus far, which does not sound all that impressive. But when you look into his other numbers, you get the sense that maybe he's been a bit unlucky.

His DICE of 2.68 is -1.70 lower than his ERA, the biggest difference out of the 4 pitchers we've looked at. Why is his DICE so low? Because he's striking out batters at a rate of 29.1% to go with his 7.3% BB%. He's also only allowed a home-run 1.8% of the time. With all of these stats in mind, he's been very unlucky thus far, as his .364 BABIP shows. Look for his ERA & oOBP to improve as he pitches a few more games in the season.

That's it, folks. I hope you've enjoyed this deep dive and I hope that I was able to keep it fun & informative :)

ABL 2022-23 - Mid-Season All-Stars (Part 1)

Now that we've reached the half-way point of the 2022-23 ABL season, let us have a look at the best batters at each position, by the numbers!

*To qualify for this list, I had to account for the fact that some teams have only played 15 games out of the scheduled 20 thus far, so I set the minimum Plate Appearance at 45, with exceptions for Catchers & players of Geelong-Korea, at 30 & 35, respectively.

Also, I assume many of you are unfamiliar with the batting stat "GPA". Check out my Stats Glossary page for a primer on how it is calculated. For context, an average GPA in the ABL this season is between .240 - .265 .

Let's get to it!

Catcher

Anthony Quirion (Adelaide Giants)

• .368 GPA

• .436 OBP

• .315 ISO

First Baseman

Seok Hwan Kim (Geelong-Korea)

• .362 GPA

• .429 OBP 

• .383 ISO

Second Baseman

Nick Ward (Adelaide Giants)

• .402 GPA

• .473 OBP

• .371 ISO

Third Baseman

T.J. Bennett (Brisbane Bandits)

• .339 GPA

• .352 OBP

• .410 ISO

Shortstop

Tzu-Wei Lin (Auckland Tuatara)

• .383 GPA

• .492 OBP

• .271 ISO

• 124.0 BS Index (100% SB%, 24% Take-Off Rate)

Outfielders

Tim Kennelly (Perth Heat)

• .362 GPA

• .469 OBP

• .312 ISO

Chan Eui Song (Geelong-Korea)

• .347 GPA

• .404 OBP

• .273 ISO

Tyler Tolbert (Brisbane Bandits)

• .324 GPA

• .436 OBP

• .192 ISO

• 119.9 BS Index (90.9% SB%, 28.9% Take-Off Rate)

DH

Zac Shepherd (Sydney Blue Sox)

• .329 GPA

• .370 OBP

• .325 ISO

Mid-Season All-Star Line-Up

1. Tzu-Wei Lin (Tuatara)

2. Nick Ward (Giants)

3. Anthony Quirion (Giants)

4. T.J. Bennett (Bandits)

5. Seok Hwan Kim (Geelong-Korea)

6. Tim Kennelly (Heat)

7. Chan Eui Song (Geelong-Korea)

8. Zac Shepherd (Blue Sox)

9. Tyler Tolbert (Bandits)

Honourable Mentions

• Boss Moanaroa (.298 GPA)

• Robbie Glendinning (.305 GPA)

All right - so what do you guys make of my picks? Do you guys agree, or do you guys think I'm out of my mind?

Stick around for Part 2, where I'll pick my top-5 starting pitchers and top-5 relief pitchers, coming tomorrow!

*I ended up not doing a pitchers' list because I just didn't have time with the other things I have going on in life. Might do one up this weekend (17-18th Dec.)

ABL 2022/23 Power Ranking Round 5

Welcome to my ABL 2022/23 Round 5 Power Ranking. Let's get to it!

You can find out a little bit about how I compile my Power Ranking towards the end of the post.

Power Ranking - Round 5

Team	Points	Change from Last Week
Brisbane Bandits	43.5	~0
Auckland Tuatara	35.75	↑1
Perth Heat	33.5	↓1
Adelaide Giants	31.25	↑2
Melbourne Aces	28.75	↓1
Canberra Cavalry	20	↑1
Geelong-Korea	19	↓2
Sydney Blue Sox	7.25	~0

Actual Overall W%

Team	W %	Rank Diff.
Brisbane Bandits	0.813	0
Adelaide Giants	0.688	2+
Auckland Tuatara	0.600	-1
Perth Heat	0.500	-1
Canberra Cavalry	0.500	1
Melbourne Aces	0.400	-1
Geelong-Korea	0.333	0
Sydney Blue Sox	0.133	0

Thoughts

• The Adelaide Giants are red hot, having won 8 in a row and jumping up the Power Ranking by 2 spots. They currently have the best offensive unit in the league, with a GPA of .282 (.365 OBP/.472 SLG).

• The Brisbane Bandits continue to be the team to beat, possessing a rotation that comes in at 2nd for Starting Pitching oOBP (.291) and a Bullpen that leads the league in that department with .283. 

• Auckland Tuatara are making their way up the standings, having won 3 straight series. The area they stand out in is defense, owners of a league-leading DER of .688.

• The Sydney Blue Sox continue to be ... the Sydney Blue Sox.

Power Ranking - A Primer

My Power Ranking is a simple points-based ranking system. Points are awarded based on a team's rankings within the league in the following categories -

• Actual Win %

• Pythagorean Win %

• Recent Performance

• Starting Pitching

• Offense

• Bullpen

• Defense

The maximum number of points a team can score is 50 and the minimum is 5.25.

ABL 2022/23 Power Ranking Week 4

Hello and welcome to my first Power Ranking for the 2022-23 season ABL season (and first EVER, actually). I will endeavour to post one weekly throughout the season and future editions may include brief series previews, if time allows 😣

You can find out a little bit about how I compile my Power Ranking towards the end of the post.

Power Ranking - Week 4

Team	Power Ranking Points
Brisbane Bandits	40.5
Perth Heat	31.25
Auckland Tuatara	28.75
Melbourne Aces	26.25
Geelong-Korea	21.5
Adelaide Giants	17.5
Canberra Cavalry	13.25
Sydney Blue Sox	10

Actual Overall W%

Team	W%	Rank Diff.
Brisbane Bandits	0.833	0
Adelaide Giants	0.583	+4
Perth Heat	0.583	-1
Auckland Tuatara	0.545	-1
Melbourne Aces	0.455	-1
Canberra Cavalry	0.417	1
Geelong-Korea	0.364	-2
Sydney Blue Sox	0.182	0

Thoughts

• The Power Ranking confirms that the Brisbane Bandits are rightfully the team to beat this season (whoo!). 

• We can see the Adelaide Giants are winning at a pace that is unsustainable when taking into account their play on the field, so look for them to regress in the coming weeks. 

*Though, it must be mentioned that they did play a game against Geelong-Korea in which they conceded 23 runs, so that has messed up their pyth. win % and their overall pitching lines. Give it a couple more weeks for the numbers to normalise.

• Also -  Sorry, Blue Sox fans 😬

Power Ranking - A Primer

My Power Ranking is a simple points-based ranking system. Points are awarded based on the following categories & the team's rankings within the league in these categories - 

• Actual Win %

• Pythagorean Win %

• Starting Pitching

• Offense

• Bullpen

• Defense

The maximum number of points a team can score is 42 and the minimum is 5.25. 

I may include points for recent performance in future posts.

Hello! (First Blog Post)

 Hello & welcome to my sports blog.

A little bit about myself - I'm a sports fan in Australia who loves sports stats (mainly baseball). Though, I admit my overall mathematical proficiency is lacking, despite my love of stats 😞 Outside of my sports fandom, I'm a mature-age university student hoping to complete a Bachelor's degree, majoring in History. I'm also a musician, currently in the process of forming a new band after my last one disbanded.

In regards to my sports fandom, I grew up loving football (soccer) and I was also a cricket fanatic. I loved watching & playing both of those sports. Then in 2013, I got roped into following baseball by a friend and I have been mad for it since. It was because of baseball that I got into sports statistics. And in recent years, I've started branching out into following other sports, but I've since fallen out of love with soccer & cricket.

Here is a list of sports teams/sports that I now follow:

• Oakland Athletics (MLB)

• Hiroshima Carp/Seibu Lions (NPB - casual fan)

• Brisbane Bandits (Australian Baseball League [ABL])

• SF 49ers (NFL)

• San Jose Sharks/Montreal Canadiens (NHL)

• The Malaysian National field hockey team (The 'Speedy Tigers'!)

• Rugby Union (casual fan)

Now regarding what I'll blog about - I actually conceived this idea of a blog as a way to 'archive' the stats and records from the ABL. Baseball Reference & the ABL website do have stats but only season-to-season and team-by-team stats - I haven't found any website where you can actually sort through career stats/season leaders. So I will endeavour to provide that for the people 😤

While providing an archive of ABL stats is my main motivation, I also envision doing brief weekly previews of the ABL rounds and seeing how the teams match up head-to-head. I also want to do posts that relate to all of the other sports teams that I follow (during the ABL offseason most likely), so this blog may eventually contain a little bit of everything for everyone 😬

This is mainly just going to be a side-project/hobby for me as I do have other things to attend to, but I will try to post once a week (two if you're lucky). And again, I just want to put it out there that I'm no math whiz nor am I much of a writer - I'm just some guy who enjoys sports & the numbers associated with them, and hopefully some people find what I end up posting about half-interesting 😌