In the 2022-23 edition of the ABL, there are 10 players (so far) who have appeared at the Major League level. Let's take a look at how they are currently performing in the ABL.
*Check out my Stats Glossary page for any explanation on the stats that I use.
*Check out this page to view the league averages, to understand the context of the stats that I will be using.
The Players (in order of Major League [ML] games played)
Batters
• Josh Reddick (Perth Heat) - 1305 ML Games
• Pete Kozma (Perth Heat) - 344 ML Games
• Tzu-Wei Lin (Auckland Tuatara) - 102 ML Games
• Donald Lutz (Brisbane Bandits) - 62 ML Games
• Aaron Whitefield (Melbourne Aces) - 8 ML Games
• Jacob Robson (Melbourne Aces) - 4 ML Games
Pitchers
• Brian Flynn (Melbourne Aces) - 102 ML Games
• Warwick Saupold (Perth Heat) - 82 ML Games
• Chris Oxspring (Sydney Blue Sox) - 5 ML Games
• Toru Murata (Auckland Tuatara) - 1 ML Game
How Are They Going?
Tzu-Wei Lin
With a GPA of .361, Tzu-Wei Lin is the best of his cohort this season, so far. The only knock on him is that this level of performance *maybe* unsustainable if the season was longer than the scheduled 40 games (.375 BABIP). But that concern is tempered by the fact that he is doing everything else well - he's hitting for average (.381), he's getting on-base (.467), he's hitting for contact (6.6 K%), he's hitting for power (.222 ISO, 3.9% HR%) and he's got great discipline (13.2 BB%). On top of all that he's also been a plus as a base-stealer, taking off for a steal 29% of the time with a 100% success rate (129.0 BS Index). He is easily the best batter in Auckland's line-up and they will need him to continue producing if they hope to compete for a spot in the play-offs.
Jacob Robson
There's a steep drop in GPA from best to second-best (- .071), but Jacob Robson is still comfortably above-average with a .290 GPA. There are holes in his swing as demonstrated by his 25.3% strike-out rate. But when he gets the bat on the ball, he makes it count (.231 ISO, 5.1% HR%).
Pete Kozma
The second-most experienced ML player on this list, Pete Kozma is currently the owner of a .283 GPA. That performance is fuelled by his ability to hit doubles (5.8% 2B%) & just his general knack for hitting for contact, as he refuses to strike-out or even walk (10.7% & 5.8% respectively). His contact-oriented style has led to a .319 batting average & .341 BABIP, which may indicate unsustainable production but in a 40-game season, that won't matter much.
Donald Lutz
We now move on to the three batters who are having disappointing seasons. First up is Donald Lutz, owner of a .239 GPA. He's shown that he is among the best at hitting home-runs (5.3% HR%) but not much else apart from that. His plate-discipline is fine (9.2% BB%) and he's making contact (17.1% K%), which just leaves us to consider the quality of his contact. His BABIP of .216 suggests two things: he's getting unlucky AND/OR his quality of contact is not great. His high rate of home-runs suggests he is a fly-ball heavy hitter, as does his lack of doubles (1.3% 2B%) and fly-balls are BABIP killers. It should be noted that his production has nose-dived since the 2018-19 season so perhaps this is the baseline that we should be expecting from Lutz (as much as it pains me to say, as a Bandits fan).
Josh Reddick
Josh Reddick is the man that inspired me to write this. I initially wanted to explore the potential reasons for his struggles in the ABL this season but then decided to write about all the players with big league experience.
Not much has gone right for the man with the most big league experience this season, as he sports a .203 GPA from 105 PA. He is putting the ball in play quite a bit (10.5% K%) but he is not doing much damage in doing so (.185 BABIP). His doubles & home-run rate are right on average (3.8% & 2.9% respectively) which means he could be having an atrocious run of bad luck as his would-be singles are gobbled up by opposing defenders. He's also walking at a below-average rate (5.7%) which does not help his production, but it shouldn't be the biggest reason for his struggles.
It is a shame to see him not do too well because I'm an A's fan & Reddick was the player I was most looking forward to seeing in action this season. I will still keenly follow his season & hope for a turn around in the second half of the season.
Aaron Whitefield
Owner of a .187 GPA, Aaron Whitefield has been the most disappointing batter of this group thus far. He strikes-out quite a bit (27.5%) & when he does put the ball in play, he is not doing much with it. His doubles & home-run rate are below average (2.5% & 1.3%), which has led to an ISO of .075 (yikes). One source of bright spot for Whitefield though, is that he remains an effective base-stealer. His take-off rate of 42.9% with a success rate of 100% leads to an impressive 142.9 BS Index. But his legs are moot if he can't find a way to get on base (.275 OBP).
It is now time to get onto the pitchers (in order of success again, this time as judged by ERA).
Toru Murata
With an ERA of 0.76, Toru Murata comfortably beats the other 3 pitchers on the list. That is backed up by a .266 oOBP. He has done this despite having an average strike-out rate (20.2%) but he has done well to limit the walks (5.3%) & he hasn't surrendered a single home-run all season (yet)! The caveat to all this is Murata does have the 2nd largest difference in ERA-DICE (his ERA is lower than his DICE by -1.39) & to go along with a BABIP of .275, it may indicate unsustainable performance but I doubt he and the fans in Auckland care about these numbers :) Just don't @ me, please. He's having a killer season and let's leave it at that.
Chris Oxspring
Chris Oxspring is the only reliever on this list and he's been having a pretty good season himself. He has a 2.70 ERA (3.30 DICE) and that is despite the fact that his BABIP is at .327, to go along with an oOBP of .317, which is right on league average. What has led to that low ERA, I hear you ask? I don't think it's his strike-out rate of 23.2%, which while that is above-average, it isn't meaningfully so. His walk rate of 7.3% also does not indicate him being an absurd control pitcher.
A stat one looks at to see where Oxspring's season has gone right is his LOB%, which sits at 86.2%, comfortably above-average. It seems he's had a lot of luck - although he's allowing batters to get on-base at an average clip, he somehow manages to strand a ridiculous number of those runners. Cue the usual comment on unsustainable performance, small sample, short season etc etc.
Warwick Saupold
Warwick Saupold owns a 3.30 ERA while being one of the more (if not the most) extreme pitch-to-contact pitcher in the league, with strike-out & walk rates of 11% & 0.8% respectively. Whatever he's doing is working because he's not allowing many batters to get on base (.299 oOBP) and he's only allowing a BABIP of .306, right around league average.
Brian Flynn
We've come to the last player on our list in Brian Flynn, who also happens to be the pitcher with the most big league experience in the ABL this season. He has an ERA of 4.38 on the season thus far, which does not sound all that impressive. But when you look into his other numbers, you get the sense that maybe he's been a bit unlucky.
His DICE of 2.68 is -1.70 lower than his ERA, the biggest difference out of the 4 pitchers we've looked at. Why is his DICE so low? Because he's striking out batters at a rate of 29.1% to go with his 7.3% BB%. He's also only allowed a home-run 1.8% of the time. With all of these stats in mind, he's been very unlucky thus far, as his .364 BABIP shows. Look for his ERA & oOBP to improve as he pitches a few more games in the season.
That's it, folks. I hope you've enjoyed this deep dive and I hope that I was able to keep it fun & informative :)
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